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ATP match prediction using the latest computational models. Updated Jul 25, 2026 12:30 AM ET.

Match board — ranked by model-vs-market divergence

Markets: Match winner · Derivatives (set 1 · exact score · totals)

TournamentMatchStart (ET)PlayeriPredict win %Kalshi bid/askPoly bid/askEdgeConfidence
Generali OpenAlexander Bublik vs Quentin HalysJul 25, 7:00 AMQuentin Halys underdog41%0.31/0.320.33/0.34+9ppmedium
Tampere Challengerwatch Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Gauthier OnclinJul 25, 9:00 AMGauthier Onclin62%0.39/0.400.38/0.39+22pplow
Why: Onclin ranked higher than Dedura-Palomero (#217 vs unranked); Onclin is at peak age; our point-by-point serve/return model independently rates Onclin at 73%; both model heads pick Onclin  ·  Top factors: ranking strongly for Onclin (+8pp); market prices mildly for Onclin (+4pp); age curve mildly against Onclin (-2pp); surface Elo mildly for Onclin (+1pp)  ·  Conditions: court: hard; no weather forecast available; no known injuries
Mubadala Citi DC OpenJames McCabe vs Alex BoltJul 25, 10:00 AMJames McCabe underdog45%0.40/0.450.37/0.46-0pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenAziz Dougaz vs Aleksandar VukicJul 25, 10:00 AMAleksandar Vukic54%no mkt yet——low
Millennium Estoril OpenHugo Gaston vs Luca Van AsscheJul 25, 10:00 AMHugo Gaston underdog42%0.39/0.400.38/0.39+2ppmedium
Tampere ChallengerOtto Virtanen vs Maks KasnikowskiJul 25, 10:10 AMOtto Virtanen65%0.62/0.630.60/0.61+2pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenStefan Kozlov vs Zachary SvajdaJul 25, 11:30 AMZachary Svajda64%no mkt yet——low
Mubadala Citi DC OpenRemy Bertola vs Andre IlaganJul 25, 11:30 AMRemy Bertola51%no mkt yet——low
Mubadala Citi DC OpenBilly Harris vs Abdullah ShelbayhJul 25, 11:30 AMBilly Harris51%no mkt yet——low
Zug ChallengerThiago Seyboth Wild vs Dylan DietrichJul 25, 12:00 PMThiago Seyboth Wild67%0.40/0.410.40/0.41+26pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenAryan Shah vs Marcos GironJul 25, 1:00 PMMarcos Giron81%no mkt yet——medium
Mubadala Citi DC OpenDusan Lajovic vs Cruz HewittJul 25, 1:00 PMDusan Lajovic74%no mkt yet——medium
Mubadala Citi DC OpenMoez Echargui vs Jordan LeeJul 25, 1:00 PMMoez Echargui67%no mkt yet——low
Mubadala Citi DC OpenTrevor Svajda vs Elias YmerJul 25, 1:00 PMTrevor Svajda53%0.21/0.37 wide0.32/0.41—low
—Martin Damm vs Kimmer CoppejansJul 25, 1:00 PMMartin Damm57%listed, no book——low
Millennium Estoril OpenLuciano Darderi vs Alexander BlockxJul 25, 2:00 PMAlexander Blockx underdog45%0.35/0.360.37/0.38+9ppmedium
—watch Keegan Smith vs Luka PavlovicJul 25, 2:00 PMLuka Pavlovic58%0.45/0.460.45/0.46+12pplow
Why: Pavlovic is at peak age; both model heads pick Pavlovic; a second independent rating (Tennis Abstract Elo) also has Pavlovic at 55%, close to our 58%  ·  Watch: match sim is notably more cautious (our point-by-point serve/return model independently rates Pavlovic at 39%, 39% vs our 58%) — the sim runs on serve/return stats, which are near-default for Smith (6 tour matches on record)  ·  Top factors: market prices mildly for Pavlovic (+2pp); surface Elo mildly for Pavlovic (+2pp); age curve mildly for Pavlovic (+2pp); ensemble boosts the sim's input (+1pp)  ·  Conditions: court: hard; no weather forecast available; no known injuries
Zug ChallengerMarc-Andrea Huesler vs Max Hans RehbergJul 25, 2:00 PMMarc-Andrea Huesler56%0.54/0.560.54/0.55-0pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenEdas Butvilas vs Mackenzie McDonaldJul 25, 2:30 PMMackenzie McDonald55%listed, no book——medium
Mubadala Citi DC OpenAndres Martin vs Christopher O'ConnellJul 25, 3:00 PMChristopher O'Connell74%listed, no book——medium
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoBernard Tomic vs Miguel TobonJul 25, 9:00 PMBernard Tomic53%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoAlan Magadan vs Garrett JohnsJul 25, 9:00 PMAlan Magadan58%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoNicolas Mejia vs Alex HernandezJul 25, 10:30 PMNicolas Mejia75%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoAlan Fernando Rubio Fierros vs Soonwoo KwonJul 25, 10:30 PMSoonwoo Kwon72%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoAidan Mayo vs Borna GojoJul 26, 12:00 AMBorna Gojo65%listed, no book——low
—Edward Winter vs Luis Carlos AlvarezJul 26, 12:00 AMLuis Carlos Alvarez53%listed, no book——low

One row per match, Kalshi-priced or not. Highlighted rows (green edge) are the ones the model's betting layer would actually stake: the price edge passed every gate, including a second model that scores how likely the edge is REAL (a big edge against a thin-data player usually isn't). All other rows are dimmed — the prediction stands, but the model would not bet it; a dimmed row can show high confidence AND a large edge and still be a pass, because confidence measures how reliable the win probability is, not whether the market price is beatable. Best bet is the side with the most value against its own ask — often the underdog (a 20%-chance player is a great buy at a 5¢ ask). "—" means no open Kalshi market. Poly bid/ask is the same pick side on Polymarket (a second exchange) — bid/ask when a book is available, else its last trade; those markets can trade in-play and some Challenger/ITF books are thin (wide spreads, low size), so treat Poly as a second venue snapshot, not a sharp fair price.

News & injury watch

PlayerStatusLatest (Grok, verified sources not guaranteed)
No injury flags or news on today's board.

Injury status is checked for every Kalshi-priced match; news lines cover highlighted matches only. AI-summarized — treat as a pointer, not a source.

Not financial advice. This page is for match prediction only and is not intended for betting or gambling. Model probabilities are estimates from public data (~66% holdout accuracy); the pre-match market is usually sharper. Odds shown from prediction markets and oddsmakers are subject to change and may not be accurate or current. Low-confidence rows involve players the model has little history on. No stake recommendations are published here. If you gamble, size responsibly and expect variance.